The New Three Mountains For Distributed PV

In the first three quarters, the newly installed PV capacity was 52.6GW, among which distributed PV capacity was 35.3GW, accounting for 67%.

Distributed photovoltaic has ushered in the era of the dream opportunity, but at the same time will face unprecedented market supervision and regulation.

1. Risk of electricity price

As we all know, distributed PV revenue is closely related to consumer electricity prices, especially for industrial and commercial distributed PV projects. Recently, Shandong Province, a major distributed photovoltaic province, dropped a "deep-water bomb" here.

On November 16, State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company and Shandong Power Trading Center released the announcement of time-sharing peak-valley coefficient and execution period of capacity compensation in 2023, introducing deep valley and peak coefficient and execution period for the first time. Except in summer, 11:00 ~14:00 is divided into deep valley section, which is the peak of photovoltaic power generation output.

It is estimated that with the implementation of the deep valley period and coefficient policy, the lowest electricity price for industrial and commercial deep valleys in Shandong may be reduced to about 0.1 yuan/h, and the industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic income is greatly reduced.

To this end, once the news came out, there are a number of investors and developers called "industry and commerce can not do".

"In the short term, individual projects will definitely be affected." Zhang Xiaobin, executive vice president of the Shandong Solar Energy Industry Association, said, "Even with the addition of energy storage, the high returns of more than 20 percent of industrial and commercial distributed PV cannot be sustained."

By the end of October this year, the accumulated installed PV capacity in Shandong exceeded 40GW, among which the distributed PV capacity exceeded 29GW. With a large number of new energy connected to the grid in the short term, the peak regulation pressure of the power grid is increasing day by day. As for energy storage, which is widely concerned by the market, Zhang Xiaobin believes that from the actual situation, no matter in terms of technical conditions, market application, or capacity, it is difficult for energy storage to "shoulder the heavy task" at present.

Another distributed photovoltaic investors also frankly, the current distributed photovoltaic storage is not only on the site installation safety regulations safety supervision is strict, but also faced with complex procedures beyond imagination, business model can not be accounted for, technical solution demonstration is difficult and many bottlenecks, "even a place this year suspended the light storage project".

In fact, Shandong is not the first province to implement electricity price reform. According to the latest electricity price document of Hebei Southern Network in November, the electricity price for sale within 1kV will be sold on a commission basis, and the electricity price for valley segment will be implemented from 12:00 to 15:00, which is the peak of photovoltaic output.

Zhang Xiaobin reminds that many policy signals since this year show that the future is considerable, measurable, adjustable, controllable, and "who invests, who benefits, who bears" will be the future distributed photovoltaic investors need to face the general trend, "not only Hebei, Shandong, before the end of the year or more provinces will introduce electricity price policies to guide the distributed photovoltaic more reasonable and healthy development.

2. Power network cost

Grid stress also shows up more directly in grid access.

On September 27, the Hebei Development and Reform Commission issued a Notice on Strengthening the Management of rooftop distributed photovoltaic power generation. It pointed out that the installed capacity of rooftop distributed photovoltaic power generation is growing rapidly, but some areas have problems such as lax implementation of standards and over-capacity access of distribution transformers, which have a certain impact on power supply safety and power quality. In order to further promote the scientific, orderly and safe development of rooftop distributed photovoltaic (PV), over-capacity access is strictly prohibited. The PV capacity (including the capacity that has been recorded and is under construction or to be built) connected to the main transformer (distribution transformer) of the power grid at all levels should not exceed 80% of the rated capacity of the equipment. At the same time, the accessible capacity of the power grid should be disclosed on a regular basis. The accessible rooftop distributed photovoltaic capacity of the county power grid should be calculated in principle based on the power not sent back to the power grid of 220 kV or above.

According to the calculation of relevant power grid departments, a large number of counties in Hebei Southern Network have no distributed photovoltaic access space. By the end of September, the cumulative installed capacity of PV in Hebei was 36.7GW, accounting for 33.4% of the total installed capacity of local power.

In order to fit the grid, the additional grid costs of distributed PV are increasingly intensive.

After centralized power stations, distributed photovoltaic distribution and storage policies are frequent. Many places such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui and Zhejiang have introduced or encouraged or forced distributed photovoltaic configuration for energy storage.

In addition to distribution and storage, in July this year, Henan Province, a major province of distributed PV, took the lead in bringing distributed wind power and distributed PV (excluding poverty alleviation projects) connected to the grid with a voltage level of 10 (6) kV within the province into the scope of market players, participating in the market management of auxiliary services of Henan electric power peak regulation, and distributing auxiliary services costs according to the current trading rules of the peak regulation cost allocation method of new energy power plants.

At the same time, Shandong, a benchmark province for distributed PV, once again took the lead. In early June this year, Shandong Energy Regulatory Office, Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and Provincial Energy Bureau organized and drafted the Supplementary Notice on Matters Related to the Trial Operation of Shandong Power Spot Market Settlement in 2022 (draft for comments), which required to promote the participation of distributed new energy in the power market and gradually include distributed new energy into the scope of market entities. Participate in the market deviation cost sharing equally with the centralized new energy station. However, this requirement was removed from the official document.

However, it is worth noting that on October 20, Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau again issued the Notice on Soliciting Opinions on Provincial Electricity Market Trading in 2023, clearly pointing out that in accordance with the principle of "who benefits, who bears", orderly promote distributed new energy to participate in the market cost allocation, and support new energy and distribution construction energy storage consortium to participate in the electricity market.

According to industry insiders, the current market deviation sharing cost of Shandong new energy power station is about 0.02-0.03 yuan/degree, and it is on the rise. Under the new policy, investment enterprises can make investment model with conservative income in the range of 0.01-0.03 yuan/degree.

3. System security

Access, revenue, another important lifeline of distributed PV is system security.

Different from the centralized photovoltaic power station, distributed photovoltaic is close to the user side. With the progress of technology, the power level and current voltage of photovoltaic products are constantly improved, and the photovoltaic system is upgraded from the initial 600V to 1000V and then gradually to 1500V. Higher voltage also means higher fire risk. Once a fire occurs, it will not only cause the loss of the power station, but more importantly, it will harm the safety of the users, and it will also hinder the fire rescue.

In this regard, the United States National Electrical Code requirements: the distance to the photovoltaic matrix 305mm as the boundary range, outside the boundary range, within 30 seconds after the trigger equipment started, the voltage is reduced to 30V below; Within the boundary range, it is required to have a "photovoltaic hazard control system", or reduce the voltage to less than 80V within 30S after the trigger equipment is started.

The Canadian Electrical Installation Code requires that an arc fault interrupter or equivalent device be installed when the DC side voltage of the PV system is greater than 80V. When the photovoltaic system is installed in the building or on the building, the quick shutdown device should be installed.

In addition, Germany, Australia, Thailand have made relevant mandatory provisions on distributed photovoltaic system safety.

Domestic policy: On November 26, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Strengthening the Safety Work of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation (Draft for Comment), in which the "project design management" clearly requires the installation of arc fault circuit breakers or the use of components with corresponding functions to achieve intelligent arc detection and fast cutting function; The photovoltaic module should be equipped with the safety turn-off protection function to ensure that the inverter is shut down. After the AC power failure, the DC voltage outside the system subarray is lower than the safety voltage.

On November 9, the Development and Reform Bureau of Dongguan, Guangdong Province officially released the "Management Measures for the Construction of distributed photovoltaic power Generation Projects of the Dongguan Development and Reform Bureau". Compared with the draft for comments in 2021, it has significantly changed, requiring that photovoltaic projects must have the ability to quickly shut down and manage modules to ensure the safety of personnel and property.

Just a week later, on November 17, the Haining City Development and Reform Bureau of Zhejiang Province issued the "Management Measures for the Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic power Generation Projects in Haining City" (draft for comments), which also listed that photovoltaic projects must have the module level quick shutdown and management ability.

According to industry insiders, the way to achieve the fast shutdown function at the component level includes the use of power optimizer, micro inverter, shutdown, etc. With the addition of more cities, distributed photovoltaic system security configuration will be more strict.

By the end of September 2022, the cumulative installed installed capacity of distributed PV in China has reached 142.4GW, accounting for 40% of the total installed capacity of PV, which will soon take up "half of the total installed capacity". Meanwhile, the regulatory requirements will become more stringent, and the market changes are still surging forward.