Silicon Prices Fell

On December 14, PVInfoLink released the latest PV supply chain price, in which the price of polycrystalline compact material fell 3.8% to 277 yuan /KG.

Silicon material price

To the middle of the month, the stalemate and wait-and-see situation between upstream buyers and sellers has not been significantly eased, and the price game continues to be intense. The early orders have been executed successively. Although some orders are still being delivered, the proportion is low. The process of new order signing and price negotiation is difficult, the buyer's wait-and-see mood is serious, and both sides still cannot reach an agreement on the new transaction price until this week, so the game continues.

As of this Wednesday, the scale of orders signed between mainstream large factories is limited, but there are small batch orders signed in line with the production demand, and the price has dropped significantly. Buyers and sellers are still divided over the new price, and both are bidding with extreme caution.

On the supply side, the output of silicon material increased from the previous month, but on the demand side, with the gradual decline of the end demand, the downstream demand began to shrink, and the evolution of the market environment interwoven with complex factors of abnormal inventory level and price drop of silicon chip link, the crystallization link gradually lowered the dynamic level and reduced the demand scale of newly purchased silicon material. It is feared that the silicon supply link will face different levels of abnormal inventory accumulation, and may even affect the pace of supply and demand after the Spring Festival.

* Special note: At the peak of the game in the production and manufacturing links of the industrial chain, InfoLink considers and combines the overall trend of the industrial chain price, and the main purpose of the silicon price change range is to reflect the real trend and direction.

Silicon wafer price

Monocrystallist silicon chip price war opened, from last week the mainstream specifications of the price into the "accelerated decline" interval, the silicon chip leading Dachang as the representative of the silicon chip price decline rate occurred "daily update", and the fall is amazing, silicon chip link price stampede serious, fierce competition.

The mainstream price level of each specification has been significantly lower than the leading manufacturer's early published price, and as of this Wednesday there is still no sign of stability. This week, the mainstream price of 182mm/150μm silicon wafers has fallen below 6 yuan per piece, and the price of 210mm/150μm silicon wafers has fallen to 8 yuan per piece. Assuming that the price decline of silicon wafers corresponds to the price decline of silicon materials, the price decline of silicon materials is temporarily difficult to meet, I am afraid. So it's hard to see the big upstream game coming to fruition anytime soon.

Silicon chip prices are falling rapidly, for the downstream procurement link, the psychological pressure and difficulty is also increasing. Considering the expectation and control of the falling price risk, the general adoption of the silicon chip inventory level and turnover to improve the requirements and strict control, resulting in the silicon chip manufacturers to varying degrees of shipment blocked, sales pressure continues to increase.

Battery sheet price

This week, the price of silicon wafer is in chaos, stack component factories have completed this year's cargo target, corresponding to the rapid contraction of the demand for cargo, battery prices show a circuit breaker decline, the size of the decline to 6-8%, battery prices and transaction prices in the day as a unit of the downward update, the subsequent price trend is more wait-and-see.

As of today, the transaction price of battery pieces M6, M10 and G12 sizes falls to 1.2 yuan per watt, 1.22-1.25 yuan per watt, and 1.22 yuan per watt. There have been few transactions of M6 battery pieces in China, and overseas demand is shrinking rapidly. It is expected that the offer will be cancelled on January 1 next year.

Looking into the future, component manufacturers currently have a higher say, coupled with the sharp decline in the price of silicon chips deepen the desire for the price reduction of battery chips, in the expectation of falling prices under the heart, it is expected that the price of battery chips will decline rapidly by the end of the year. However, at the same time, leading battery manufacturers have better bargaining power because of their own manufacturing advantages, reflected in better battery quality and efficiency.

Price of components

The supply chain price has an obvious downward trend, and the upstream and downstream present a chaotic situation. Terminals at home and abroad are more wait-and-see on the component cargo pulling. Recently, the low price section continues to decrease, and component manufacturers also begin to close out the inventory to prepare for the year-end settlement. Recently, we can see 1.84-1.88 yuan per watt and 0.22-0.225 US dollars per watt in 23Q1. The chaotic situation of quotation will continue to next year.

This week, the price is chaotic and the trading volume is reduced. Most of the high-priced orders in the early stage have been executed, and the bottom haul in recent years is also ending. This week, the price of 500W+ single glass is about 1.84-2 yuan per watt, and the price of double glass is 1.88-2.03 yuan per watt. The overall price range continued to expand in the fourth quarter, and the new price of documents delivered before the end of December continued to have a downward trend.

The price in the overseas market continues to be confused. The price of FOB in Europe has dropped slightly to about USD 0.235-0.27 per watt, the price of FOB in the Asia-Pacific region is about USD 0.24-0.25 per watt, and the price of FOB in Brazil is about USD 0.235-0.25 per watt. The FOB price in India is about 0.32-0.359 USD per watt. The US market price also shows signs of easing due to the influence of the supply chain. The DDP price of Southeast Asian components is 0.4-0.44 USD per watt, while the local DDP price is about 0.5-0.58 USD per watt.

N type battery sheet, component price

This week, the price of N-type battery is also affected by the price of silicon chip and slightly reduced, HJT battery (G12) price of 1.4-1.5 yuan per watt. HJT battery (M6) has basically been adjusted production line, market circulation has become less. The current price of TOPCon(M10) batteries is around RMB 1.3-1.38 per watt.

As for the component price, the current price of HJT component (M6) is about RMB 2-2.2 per watt, and the overseas price is about USD 0.27-0.29 per watt. HJT components (G12) are priced at around RMB 2.1-2.3 per watt. TOPCon component (M10) prices are about 1.88-2.05 yuan per watt, overseas prices are about 0.264-0.27 US dollars per watt.

Next year, the price difference between N-type components and P-type components shows signs of narrowing, and the price difference between TOPCon and PERC components next year has a chance to narrow to less than 1 cents per watt, and HJT has a chance to come within 2-4 cents.